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Monday, 16 October 2023

Reflections on the End of Western Antiquity: 2. The supposed ‘Rupture’ of the Ancient Mediterranean, Part 2.

In the previous post I was arguing, ultimately, that explaining ‘the end of Mediterranean unity’ is not a question of finding an ‘event’ that ruptured Mediterranean unity (the Arab conquests, Vandal Piracy, etc) as much as looking at why the features that had held it together earlier – and which had overcome those features that might militate against unity – came to an end. This post muses rather meanderingly on that issue.

Of course, it might be the case that some decisive event killed off the features that had unified the Mediterranean but there are two points that emerge from that possibility. One is that it seriously recasts the question, and the other is that what we might call structural features do not tend to be killed off by single dramatic events unless they’re already dying. As an example, look at towns ravaged by earthquakes, sacks by enemy armies, great fires, or plagues, but which continued to survive as successful urban centres.

How the Roman World came together

Let’s look first, briefly, at the features that held the Mediterranean World (and indeed the empire, loosely defined, as a whole) together in the earlier Roman period, and then at how these features came to an end. Above all, though the early Roman polity was created by conquest, it was held together by the desire of local communities to be part of the Roman world. This, as far as I can tell, not being a specialist in either Republican or early imperial history, worked differently, in detail at least, in the different parts of the empire (I am going to use that term, all in lower case, to cover the Republican as well as the imperial period). A point often forgotten, at least by us non-specialists in earlier Roman history, is that Rome conquered most of the eastern Mediterranean before it conquered the West. Roman military intervention in Greece began in the last decades of the third century (at the height of the second Punic War) and Greece was effectively conquered when the Romans sacked Corinth in 146 BC (the same year as the destruction of Carthage). By then, Rome controlled much of North Africa and the eastern half of Spain. Some of the Mediterranean coast of Gaul had taken place in 121BC but by the time Caesar began the conquest of further Gaul in 58 BC pretty much all of the Eastern Mediterranean – Macedonia, Greece, Asia Minor, the Levant, Tripolitania – had either been annexed or made into tributary states. The conquest of Marseille didn’t take place until 49 BC, the final conquest of Spain took place after the conquest of Egypt, and of course that of Britain even later.  Even the conquest of northern Italy occurred after Roman claims to hegemony over Greece had been laid down.

There are several key points that emerge from this. Possibly the most important is that in east and west (albeit in different ways) close cultural ties preceded military conquest. Though not a Greek colony, Rome was already a part of the Hellenistic world by the third century. Many of its rivals for domination in Italy were Greek colonies and the Republic had to fight and win a tough war against Pyrrhus, the king of Epirus, a cousin of Alexander the Great. Additionally, Rome bought into the Greek discourse about ‘barbarians’ in its political claims for domination (see, e.g., Emma Dench’s From Barbarians to New Men[1]). All this meant – and this, it seems to me, is a very important point – that Rome looked eastwards rather than westwards. In some ways the Republic was drawn into military action in the eastern Mediterranean and that leads to a third point, which is that Rome exploited regional rivalries to play contenders off against each other. It did this everywhere and even in the late Empire it remained a key strategy beyond the frontiers.

That brings us to the issue of military dominance. I don’t want to dwell too long on this but once upon a time, in military historical circles, there was long discussion about the somehow inherent supremacy of the Roman legionary ‘system’ over the Macedonian/Hellenistic phalanx. This sort of discussion rapidly leaves the realm of historical argument (and indeed, in my view, that of history full stop) and enters that of hypotheticals and counter-factuals – ah, but what if the Macedonians had had a general as good as Alexander? What if this or that factor had not applied? Yeah, what if…? The significant point is that for some reason or other, the Romans do seem to have had a long run of military success against the Hellenistic states (although of course it's worth remembering that the evidence we have is hardly even-handed). The simple fact of being an army that fought regularly and usually won very likely (in my view) had an incalculable effect upon the confidence, morale, and fighting spirit of veteran Roman troops, while repeated defeats possibly had an equal and opposite effect on their enemies. This would be the case regardless of the ‘tactical system’ being used. Certainly, above all, it increased the attraction of allying with, or subscribing to the protection of, Rome. This was the case, a fortiori, in the west, where Roman armies must have outnumbered, ‘out-armoured’, and ‘out-equipped’ their ‘barbarian’ enemies, in addition to having better logistics, heavy siege weapons and so on (Roman accounts of Gallic or Germanic armies numbering many tens of thousands are simply incredible); this fact needs to be internalised when thinking about Roman wars, and indeed the quality of the Roman army, in the West (after all, sometimes they lost…). The ‘bottom line’ was that Roman military success made Roman support or protection worth having and that meant that some communities turned to Rome and drew it further into local rivalries.

In the West, communities in Gaul, Britain and Germania were already linked into Roman cultural orbit before they were conquered. Objects from the Roman world were deployed to display status and prestige and drew people into Rome’s sphere of influence (see Greg Wolf’s Becoming Roman[2]). This continued after conquest when people within local communities competed for standing (after being demilitarised and having their more warlike elements hived off into the auxilia: see Ian Haynes’ work on this, especially: e.g. Blood of the Provinces) by displaying their ‘Roman-ness’ in new Roman-style towns, villas and so on, and above all by seeking status through involvement in local government. These features seem to have been far less significant in the East (where after all it was more a case of the Romans being drawn to Hellenistic culture, something topped up, in the late first and early second century especially, with the Roman attraction to the Greek culture of the ‘second sophistic’) but they were not absent. A few towns even built amphitheatres... Competition between  communities, played out by striving for the advantages of particular legal status, within the Roman system, remained an important element of local or regional politics even into the late imperial period, and even beyond.

The features sketched out created an exceptional situation, as mentioned, where the west and north-west were drawn into a Mediterranean world and where that world was itself unified by constant reference, in local and regional politics, to Rome and its rulers. Eventually I will come back to the issue of whether this situation was repeatable. For now, let’s examine what happened when these circumstances no longer pertained.

The fracturing of the early Roman world

By the third century, if not slightly earlier, many of the factors that had led to unity no longer applied. The products that, in the West at least, had been used to signal participation in the Roman world were by then mostly being manufactured regionally rather than being imported from Mediterranean centres. Economically the western half of the empire went back to being a series of largely independent regional economic networks. Possibly more importantly, the political advantages gained by involvement in, and financial expenditure on, local government, monumental works and so on, were generally no longer brought by this sort of activity. Parts of the west had been over-urbanised in the rush to become Roman. A retreat from this high-point followed. When the Antonine Constitution made all free-born inhabitants citizens, Roman citizenship was no longer something to be competed for. In this situation, in some ways the ‘crisis’ of the third century was always going to be on the cards. However one adds nuance to old views of the ‘third-century crisis’ (it wasn’t that bad everywhere, and not at all in some regions; it didn’t last as long, or occur at the same time everywhere, etc), this was a serious moment. The Palmyrene and Gallic Empires showed that the notion that there might be multiple ‘Roman Empires’ was not seen as entirely alien. With a few different conjunctures the Empire could have fragmented in the third century. One feature that helped ensure that this didn’t happen, as I suggested in Barbarian Migrations and the Roman West, was the continuing hegemony of the notion of Roman ‘civic masculinity’. There were as yet no real alternatives to that in establishing legitimate power at a regional, local, or even familial level. What this meant was a continued relevance of some of the aspects of ‘being Roman’ that had brought the Roman world together. This was a crucial resource and a glue that still held that world together. Again, note that the crucial issue here is one of mentalité.

Responses and problems

As it happened, of course, the Empire did not fall apart and responded effectively to the changes that had threatened fragmentation. Obviously, much of this response was pragmatic and piecemeal and effected over a long time, rather than being the result of the imperial rulers sitting down with their advisors one day and formulating a coherent set of policies. Nonetheless, the Empire as it emerged at the end of the Tetrarchy was a very different place from that which had existed 100 or 150 years earlier.

Various responses, changes, and developments – administrative reform; the emergence of a new civil bureaucracy; the separation of civil and military branches of service; new forms of aristocracy and rewards for service; new capitals; moving the emperor to the frontier – all produced an Empire that was as strong as it had been in the second century and remained so, in the West, for a century (and longer in the East). All these developments, though, had corresponding weaknesses. The picture that follows is broad-brush and (over-)simplified, as well as almost certainly needing updating, but it and – more importantly – the issues it raises still seem to me to be generally valid, in outline at any rate.

The foundation of Constantinople created a focus for the eastern provinces (pinning the Balkans to and Greece to Asia Minor and the Levant, etc) and thus increased the coherence of the East (and continued to do so in some ways well beyond the Arab conquests and into the middle Byzantine period; I am thinking here of John Haldon’s argument that the seventh-century Empire functioned effectively as one huge city state[3]) it created a separate, alternative, eastern pole of attraction. The fact that it was a new foundation had important advantages but it also meant a crucial reorganization of fiscal resources. The Egyptian grain fleet was now diverted to the Bosphorus. As I see it, this made for a more significant rearrangement of existing economic ties and networks than would perhaps have been the case had the emperors decided upon, say, Antioch as the central point of the East.

Moving the western capital to frontier cities, above all Trier, was pragmatically a very effective move. It bound Gaul, most importantly, but also other frontier regions tightly into the imperial state. Older nobilities had to travel to the north to compete for imperial patronage in order to maintain their traditional aristocratic culture of otium and negotium. At the same time, though, it seems to have created a certain resentment among those traditional elites, not used to being sidelined. By early in the fifth century the Gallic and Italian aristocracies largely formed separate networks and this, as I see it, became a crucial feature to be overcome in fifth-century politics. Gratian’s move of the capital back to Milan in 380 was also, in my view, crucial. Though, as I look at it now – 16 years on from Barbarian Migrations – it seems like a potentially imaginative response to the emerging problems of the fourth century western Empire,[4] as it turned out it precipitated crisis. It removed most of the Gallic and Germanic provinces, and Britain, from the close connection with the Emperor to which they had become accustomed; stress and usurpation soon followed.

With the emperors in the west hardly ever resident in Rome, the Empire now had two very separate political centres or foci for political activity. Indeed, the end of the de facto political (rather than ideological) centrality of Rome itself helped unpick the ties that had bound the eastern and western worlds together. The two halves of the Empire began to face in different directions. The social and cultural contacts between east and west began to reduce (which is, obviously, not to say that they ended or became insignificant). I also have an impression (rightly or wrongly) that, after the early fifth century, the direction of those links that remained very much tended to be west to east.

Similarly, though it was an effective response to the problems of the third century, the separation of civil and military branches of imperial service, led to the emergence of an alternative, martial or military model of Roman masculinity, one that stressed things that were antithetical to civic masculinity. This would turn out to provide a political resource for those outside the ambit of the legitimate imperial government in the fifth century: one that hadn’t existed in the third century. Another alternative was found in Christian models of masculinity, not least those stressing asceticism and renunciation. (I have a feeling that the disputes within Christianity also helped divide east and west.)

A key point is that although the new system worked well for a century in the west (and for longer in the east), it was, at least in the west, fundamentally fragile. It worked very well as long as there was an adult emperor able to command armies and manage the distribution and redistribution of patronage (offices etc) between the various interest groups within the Empire. There were numerous groups, especially regionally-focused ones, whose interests needed to be balanced. In Barbarian Migrations I appeared to think that this was a peculiarly late Roman weakness; clearly it wasn’t but the problem does still seem to me to have a distinctive flavour in the late period. Without an active, adult emperor, the focus of politics would turn inwards on the palace itself and efforts to maintain the governing faction’s position. The legitimate western Emperor was a child (or adolescent) for twenty years after 383 leading to internecine struggles for control of the palace and repeated usurpations.

That leads me to my next point. The West was riven by repeated civil wars between 383 and 425. The importance of this can’t be overstressed. The Romans had massive reserves of manpower, of course, but what was lost in these battles was the cutting edge of the Roman army: troops who could be replaced in quantity but not quality. The wars followed at such regularity, moreover, that there was hardly time for a new army to be built up and recover its effectiveness and esprit de corps before it was fighting other Roman armies again and suffering heavy losses even if it won. It was these wars, not the Great Invasion of 406 – which seems not to have involved any serious defeat of a Roman field army – that fatally weakened the Western Empire’s army, leading to the creation of new types of army, based around the groups of barbarian descent that were now within the imperial frontiers.

On the other hand, all of this wasn’t irreversible. After 425, the lesson learnt after 40 years of failed usurpations seemed to be that dynastic succession trumped everything else. For the next decade the western empire had a minor on the throne but the nature of politics changed away from attempted usurpation to struggles to control the court, which could potentially act as a cohesive force.[5]

Nevertheless, and unsurprisingly, when the Valentinianic/Theodosian dynasty came to an end with the assassination of the (like Honorius) possibly underestimated Valentinian III in 455 (a date later given significance by Marcellinus Comes as that of the end of the western Empire) the lack of such legitimacy proved fatal for all the different emperors and their backers. None could defeat the others decisively or otherwise persuade them to submit to their authority.

And yet … two things:

First, people in the west still thought they were part of the Roman world, indeed of the Roman Empire, beyond 480 and on into the 6th century. After 476, if Candidus the Isaurian is to be believed, embassies from Gaul still reached the emperor in Constantinople asking him to resolve western disputes. Western kings still based the legitimacy of their claims to rule on their Roman titles.

Second, through the period cultural connections remained. Traders still sailed the length and breadth of the Mediterranean after the end of the western imperial command economy, demonstrating that, as more recent work has argued, that the latter was not the only force to determine continued commercial and exchange connections. Indeed, as the increasing connections round into the eastern shores of the Irish Sea show, those who were involved in commerce could still adapt to changing circumstances. A key factor here might be the fact that those links became very important to western British leaders responding to the crisis of the fifth century. Like their predecessors, centuries earlier, it mattered to them to be connected to the Roman Mediterranean.

So – where (if anywhere) have we got to? A few key points:

1.       Cultural networks seem to me to be vitally important. Rome looked eastwards because of the cultural world it had become part of; the western expansion of Rome was very much driven by cultural relationships.

2.       The expansion of Roman power relied as much upon local and regional groups buying into Roman protection and or Roman culture as upon simple conquest.

3.       Ideas and culture remained crucial in maintaining the cohesion of the Roman world throughout the period discussed (from say 200 BC to 500 AD).

4.       Political history, economic history, and the history of culture, ideas and mentalité do not always run on parallel tracks. Events in the first do not always have effects in the others; changes in the other areas do not always have political consequences.

5.       Physical geography – seas, tides, currents, the direction of rivers, the location of mountain ranges, high plâteaux, forests, etc – do tend to bind or separate regions but, while extremely important we should not (pace, maybe, Halsall 2007) regard this as naturally, or automatically, determinant, and certainly not as insurmountable. Mountains can be barriers, but passes are links and thoroughfares; seas and rivers connect and divide. None of this is new. We should not assume that the cultural features that overcome certain aspects of physical geographical constraints cannot themselves come to be seen as just as ‘natural’. After all, why would Rome, a city state on the western coast of Italy, look east, especially given the difficulties of navigation between Rome and the eastern Mediterranean?

6.       We might then, equally, suppose that when physical geography does (as I put it – and I am now wondering whether this wasn’t considerably oversimplistic) ‘rear its ugly head’ and connections between regions weaken or end, this might be just as much a cultural response, a decision rather than the inevitable triumph of nature and geography over mentalité (spoiler alert: this will be crucial to my argument next time).

7.       Key events or developments are contingent upon the circumstances that created them. We ought not to see them as automatic, or that the results they had were those that the actors involved had in mind (the piecemeal imperial response to the failings of local government and their overall result might be a case in point).

8.       Nor do we have to assume that the strategies that were adopted, and which worked, or the features that tended in a particular direction, were (even in the case of strategies or policies followed consciously) automatically the best, or the only ones that could have had that outcome. As Roman history shows quite clearly, there are various ways in which the supposedly determinant features of physical geography could be and were overcome. There were always different paths that could have ended up being followed.

9.       Hand-in-hand with that, just as particular effects might not be the result of deliberate policies or strategies achieving their goals, and that even beneficial long-term results might not have been those actually intended (or conceived), none of the developments I have been considering seems to me to have been irreversible. [I think that none of the last three points will be surprising to anyone who has followed my work over the last 25 years at least.]

Having proposed all this, we are – I hope – now in a position to have another look at what did happen in the later sixth and early seventh century and possibly even to suggest a slightly different take on it.

Notes


[1] It occurs to me that several of the works I allude to in this piece are 20-30 years old. This is essentially because I haven’t thought much about the issues they discuss for over a decade. That said, they’re good books and the general points they make, and to which I refer, seem to be good ones. Clearly, if I was doing anything more serious, I would need to get up to date.

[2] See note 1.

[3] See note 1.

[4] I might write a separate post speculating on this.

[5] This after all is the argument usually deployed with regard to later seventh-century Francia.

Wednesday, 4 October 2023

Reflections on the ‘End of Western Antiquity’: 1. The supposed ‘Rupture’ of the Ancient Mediterranean, Part 1

 

Re-cap

Readers of this blog will be all-too-wearily aware that I have been working on the changes that took place in western Europe between 550 and 650 for well over a decade, since I received a Leverhulme fellowship for a project called ‘The Transformations of the Year 600’ in 2009. What I thought the final outcome of that would be has been through many versions but I currently envisage it as a trilogy, whether formally as volumes 1, 2, and 3 or as three ‘companion volumes’ will depend upon the decisions of publishers (if any publisher will take it of course!). The volumes themselves are: The Fates of the Late Antique State (politics and government), The Transformations of the Year 600 (society and economics), and The End of the Roman World (ideas). I have about 90,000 words of The Fates of the Late Antique State written (in draft) and rather less of the other two. What I thought I would do on this near-dead blog is to write up some reflections on the subject matter: things that won’t necessarily make it into the book in any solid form – maybe the odd comment here and there but probably not a block of text and possibly nothing at all – in the hope that it might be of interest and as a spur to me to keep at it, which has not been easy. My never-exactly-robust mental health has taken a profound battering over the past three years (to cut a long story short I lost my mind) with the result that I am leaving the profession in November. In some regards, then, these blog posts are a message to myself that I possibly still have things to say and that it might yet be worth finishing this project. Believe me, many are the days when I don’t agree with either of those propositions. I am not sure that these reflections are going to be particularly profound or original but they seem to me to be of some significance.

The rupture of the Mediterranean’s ‘natural’ unity

One thing that keeps coming back in the course of thinking about this project (and about a possible second edition of Barbarian Migrations) is just how profoundly unusual the period between the late Roman Republic and the third century was. This was a period when:

  • The whole Mediterranean littoral was under the control of the same polity. 
  • A coherent economic system united the western Mediterranean/western European world. 
  • Consequently, the north west of Europe was part of the same economic network as the Mediterranean world

What I find interesting is how at some point historians have come to regard all of these things as a norm. Thus we find people – from Pirenne onwards – discussing the end of Mediterranean unity or the separation of north-western Europe from the western Mediterranean as historical problems. Famously, Pirenne sought an explanation of the ‘rupture’ of the Mediterranean World and the ‘turning in on itself’ of North-Western Europe in the Arab Conquests. The Pirenne Thesis produced perhaps 60 years of debate, during which people questioned the chronology for the end of Mediterranean unity, or proposed new causes for its end. Indeed, another of the great historical works of the last century, Braudel’s The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II discussed the ‘Middle Sea’ and the regions that bounded it as forming a historical unit. This too set in train a long and important historiographical debate or set of debates and a much larger corpus of work on the Mediterranean.

Yet, in any sort of long-term perspective, the fundamental separation of the western and eastern Mediterranean worlds, or that of the north-west from the south, are really the normal state of affairs. Reading Cyprian Broodbank’s The Making of the Middle Sea brings home the point that the eastern and western Mediterranean were fundamentally very different theatres of social, political and economic activity. The Eastern Mediterranean acts as a link and thoroughfare connecting the north-east of Africa, the south-east of Europe and parts of western Asia (Asia Minor, the Levant). All of these links bound these regions to each other, for centuries, in a web of relationships far denser than those that connected the south-east of Europe with the regions to its west. That is important in itself when one thinks about the fluctuating and inchoate – but politically important – notion of ‘Europe’ (let alone The West). Indeed, the way in which Egypt (and the eastern parts of Libya) was a part of this world throws a similar light on this issue.

Before going further with that we should ask which of these issues really concerns the ‘Year 600’? The separation of the east from the west had been on-going since the third century, and the same is true, or even more so, of the separation of the north-west from the western Mediterranean littoral. Nonetheless something significant did happen in the 6th century, especially in its later half. Western Europe simply drops off the radar of writers in the East, and changes in trade and commerce emphasise the separation of the two halves of the Mediterranean (Pirenne was correct to notice that, even with the limited data at his disposal, but the chronology is too early for the Arab Conquests to be the cause).

Looking at these issues in the long term thus sheds a rather different light upon them and that does in some ways compel a rethink of what we might think of as the historian’s agenda. Are we looking at things the wrong way round? You could argue that it’s not the rupture of the Mediterranean that is the great historical problem requiring explanation – explanation frequently in terms of dramatic politico-military events – but the creation of Mediterranean unity, or of connections between the north-west of Europe and the regions to its south, in the first place.

What are the implications of that conclusion, though? Is it an argument in favour of the of ‘longue durée’ approach? People familiar with my work since 1995 will know I have serious reservations about the ‘longue durée’, but nevertheless the way viewing problems in the long term can recast what I just called the historian’s agenda does seem like a powerful argument in its favour. For that reason taking a long view ought to be a part of at least shaping the questions we think are important, and why. It can shed an important light on issues of causation, or causal factors. The problem, for me, is that if we are not careful about what we do with such a perspective it can imply a sort of determinism or inevitability about change through time. That, I remain profoundly opposed to. Things are much more random and unpredictable than that. Further, if such structural features can be overcome at particular points of history, then they can’t be assumed to be naturally determinant. On the other hand, though, if it can be argued that what happened between, say, c.250 and c.650 was just physical geography rearing its ugly head, then do we need to look for decisive politico-military actions to hang causation on?

Structural features are important. It is important to isolate what these were, specifically, and in context, rather than just assuming them to be natural, extrapolating them from long-term description, or just assuming them on ‘first principles’. What were the long-term structural issues with regard to the West’s separation from the East, or in north-west Europe’s separation from the western Mediterranean? I will try to put some thoughts together on this for the next instalment.

Thursday, 15 December 2022

Professor Grumpy's tips on how to write a lecture quickly (not counting PowerPoint)

 

Don’t write a script that will take you 50 minutes to read out: this will be far too much information for the students to take in

1: Decide upon the four things you want your students to know about at the end of the lecture. Add Introduction and Conclusion

2. Make those your four main sections and assign ten minutes to each of them. Put those on the left indent of your page. (make a power-point of the section title)

3: Are there key sub-divisions of those areas? If so, divide up your 10 minute- sections accordingly. If not, no worries. Put sub-sections 1 tab indent in from the left hand margin

4: Divide up your 10 minute section (or small sub-section) into the key things that a (say) term 4 student needs to know about. Think of at most one per minute. Write down each basic point 2 tab indents in from the left margin.

5: Will they need illustrations? If so how many (max) will make the point effectively? Remember students will look at illustrations to take them in, so key that into your timing calculations

6: By now the first bits of your lecture should look something like this (use the Word formats for Heading, Heading 1, Heading 2 etc if this will make your notes easier to read and keep track of):

Intro

Main Section 1

               Sub-section of main section 1.1

                              Point

                              Point

                              Point

                              Point

                              Point

               Sub-section of main section 1.2

                              Point

                              Point

                              Point

                              Point

Main Section 2

               Sub-section of main section 2.1

Etc.

I call this a ‘dendritic’ lecture plan because it branches out like a tree

7. For each point jot down what it is that you want to say. If you have a quotation or a reference that you need to read, put that here (or alternatively on a new line indented by three tabs).

8. Write a conclusion (5 mins) that sums up the issues you wanted to put across, and sets up the next lecture – use the same scheme as above if you like.

9. Write an intro (5 mins) that sets the scene for the lecture, why the topic matters/is important for the course, tells the students what you’re going to talk about. PowerPoint with the 4 main sub-headings. Talk them through it.

10. I find that the intro (esp) and conclusion are sometimes the bits that I do want to write out in full, so that I can get the students’ attention, and be clearer and less ‘ummy-and-ahhy’, and have some memorable phrases that they can take away.

11. Once you have that you have 50-minute lecture.

12. Keep your eye on time when you give the lecture, and compare where you are with where you ought to be

13. If, when you give the lecture, you find you have spent too long on a section, you can make up the time by speeding up a bit in the next sections, this is easier done with these bare-bones notes than with a full text.

14. If on the other hand you find you’re going too quickly, recap. Sum up you sections, sub-sections, points even. Introduce your sub-sections and why they matter. No student ever complained about that. True story: once I had so much on that I had no time at all to prepare a lecture I’d never given before (or not in that form anyway) – do not get yourself into this situation – I only had time (like 5-10 minutes beforehand) to write down some key headers. So I spoke slowly and hammered each point home, re-capping, stringing things out. All the while I was thinking ‘my god, this is a disaster’. At the end the students all said, ‘that was such a good lecture tonight [this was when I was at Birkbeck] Guy – it was really clear and helpful.’ As I said, don’t get yourself into that situation (on the other hand, it did kill off the anxiety dreams about unprepared lectures...) but it makes my point about recapping and underlining points never being a bad thing.

15. You can get a lecture text much more quickly this way, one that allows more flexibility and more engagement and which spells out and gets over the main points that you want the students to get.

16. Now you can structure you PowerPoint around your plan. Time saved on text means you have time to make your PowerPoint better. Have a power-point for each sub-section at least, that maps the content (the points) of what you’re going to talk about. A power-point slide per point can help as an aide-memoire and perhaps put up other supplementary information.

17. Power-point: Remember that students stop and read all of the text on a PowerPoint slide even if you tell them not to, so don’t overload slides with text and if you have a long quotation on one, go through it with them.

 

Archaeology, History and Bad Science: A critique of the analysis of DNA at Szólád (Hungary) and Collegno (Italy). Part 3 (Conclusions)

 

Conclusions

The aDNA analyses of Szólád and Collegno were combined with study of stable isotopes in the skeletons and then compared with the distribution of grave-goods. The essential overall conclusions were expressed – less than clearly – as follows:

In both Szólád and Collegno this genetic structure mirrors the variation that emerges from their mortuary practices, i.e., how living members of the community represented the individuals that they buried. This perhaps suggests that in these two cemeteries there may indeed have been a biological basis to the notion that long-term shared common descent can shape social identity and that this is reflected in the material culture. However, whether the association between genetic ancestry and material culture reflects specific peoples mentioned in historical texts (i.e., Longobards) or stemmed from a deeper/long-term descent (of mixed barbarian ancestries[[1]]) is as yet unclear.[2]

The stable isotope analysis is very interesting; the discussion of furnished burial deeply flawed. This, however, is not the place to discuss those or to present an alternative interpretation.

Towards the start of the article we read:

We note that we are not aiming to infer Lombard ethnicity, which is a subjective identity.[3]

This is disingenuous. The experiment was designed to examine the Longobard migration, and chose two sites associated with Longobards, excavated and discussed by archaeologists predisposed to read variations in the data on ethnic lines and to see change in material culture as resulting from Longobard migration and who have previously interpreted the sites in those terms. The background to the problem analysed was exclusively expressed in terms of the history of that migration. To say that the implication is not that the supposed incomers are Longobards, defined and unified by their (supposed) ancestry, and that that was what gave rise to the variability in material culture is entirely unconvincing.

But what, if anything, has been shown? It is, to be sure, interesting that the analyses suggest a linkage between different kindreds and particular funerary rites and diets, and that these include the evident incomers at Collegno, but this does not explain the use of those rites. The association between the furnished inhumation burial rite and ‘Germanic’ ethnicity has absolutely no prima facie evidential support whatsoever in the archaeological record. As a rite, it was clearly developed within the frontier provinces of the Roman Empire. As Irene Barbiera has proven, inhumation with weapons was a rite known in Northern Italy before the ‘barbarian migrations’.[4] That cannot be stressed strongly enough. If repeated aDNA studies reveal that furnished inhumation was generally employed by incoming groups from Germania Magna, that will demonstrate that this old assumption was the luckiest guess in the history of archaeology! It will not, however, explain why these groups, with no prior history of using the rite before their migration, suddenly decided to employ it once on Roman or formerly Roman territory, or retrospectively confer methodological or logical rigour on the initial assumption.

The analyses made no linkage between the incoming group in Collegno and the supposedly immigrant group at Szólád, other than the broad similarity of their genetic make-up when plotted on PCA diagrams.[5] Close consideration shows them not to overlap by very much even on the analyses’ own terms. The modern geographical regions associated with the supposedly incoming, ‘northern’ groups are moreover very broad. But let us in any case accept this conclusion. Does it necessarily say anything about the migration of Longobards? Think of all the other possible explanations. If the Collegno incomers do have, loosely, ‘central European DNA’ could they not (as the authors admit) be descended from Ostrogoths, or from any of the barbarians who made up Odoacer’s army? For that matter, although growing up in the locality, why can the different ‘southern’ kindreds at Collegno not belong to either of those groups? Furthermore, what if they were descended from ‘Romans’ who had moved back from the transalpine provinces?[6] Some of the areas from which the alleged newcomers might have come, according to the genetic evidence, lie inside the Empire. All these possibilities are entirely consistent with the experiment’s results.

The authors claim that the results are ‘consistent with an origin of this [putatively immigrant] group east of the Rhine and north of the Danube and we cannot reject the migration, its route, and settlement of the Longobards described in historical texts.’[7] Indeed they are, but they are at least as consistent with a wide range of alternative interpretations and do nothing to render the authors’ preferred reading more plausible than the others.  In short, the Szólád/Collegno analyses involved an experiment set up with a series of interpretive conclusions in mind; that experiment did nothing to rule those out, so it is implied that they have been confirmed. This is bizarre. Traditionally, scientific method proceeds by deduction, by ruling explanations out, rather than simply picking, out of a wide range of possibilities, the one that accords with the analysts’ preconceptions on the grounds that it had not been excluded by the experiment. There is actually very little that is ruled out by this experiment.

Let us suppose, though, that in spite of all my misgivings the analyses had revealed the arrival of Longobards at Collegno and that they were the people using grave-goods. As noted, it would still not explain their decision to use that rite; it would certainly not authorise us to describe the rite and its analogues as Longobard or Barbarian. What would it tell us? That there was a Longobard migration into Italy and, perhaps, that it contributed to stress and social competition at a local level? We knew this. No one to my knowledge is denying – or has ever denied – that there was a Longobard migration, or that it involved the usually-cited numbers of people: perhaps 100,000. In other words, the most positive reading of the results, and one, let me repeat, that by no means automatically emerges from the data, would tell us absolutely nothing that we did not already know and, with considerable likelihood, not even that. Forcing the data into the support of that maximalist reading potentially obscures what they might be saying about a broader and more interesting range of topics.

The Szólád/Collegno experiment – like many other studies of this sort – offers us, by way of conclusions, a choice between the obvious – something we already knew and no which sane person doubted (people moved into the Roman Empire from Barbaricum) – and the impossible – that no one moved and populations were entirely homogeneous. Hence, they frequently rely on setting up the second alternative as a straw man.



[1] Why ‘barbarian’?

[2] Amorim et al. ‘Understanding’, p.8.

[3] Amorim et al. ‘Understanding’, p.2.

[4] I. Barbiera, ‘Remembering the Warriors: Weapon Burials and Tombstones between Antiquity and the Early Middle Ages in Northern Italy’, in Post-Roman Transitions: Christian and Barbarian Identities in the Early Medieval West, ed. W. Pohl & G. Heydemann (Turnhout, 2013), pp.407-35.

[5] Amorim et al., ‘Understanding’, fig 2a, 2b.

[6] As is famously recorded in Eugippius’ Life of Severinus. Life of Severinus: Eugippius. The Life of St. Severin, trans. Bieler, L., (Washington, 1965).

[7] Amorim et al. ‘Understanding’, p.9.

Archaeology, History and Bad Science: A critique of the analysis of DNA at Szólád (Hungary) and Collegno (Italy). Part 2 (Method; Results).

Method

Imagine a historical study that claimed that a general north-south division was visible in, for the sake of argument, the prologues of medieval charters and that this model had predictive value, such that the geographical origin of a charter could be accurately discerned from the sequence, appearance, or non-appearance of particular phrases. This would be quite an assertion, if not necessarily implausible. Imagine, however, that this model had been constructed from a sample of no fewer than 2,233 charters from Switzerland and southern Europe but of only 179 from northern Europe. The claim would – at best – be regarded as shaky. Yet, the geographical distribution of the modern DNA samples against which the aDNA extracted at Szólád and Collegno were compared takes exactly this form. The POPRES (POPulation REference Sample) data base,[1] the largest of those used to establish the distribution of genetic types across modern Europe, contains 1349 subjects from Switzerland, 599 from the United Kingdom, 147 from France, 131 Portuguese subjects, 114 from Italy and 92 from Spain. For the variable ‘Country of Father’, the uneven distribution was skewed further: 1,404 samples from Switzerland, 310 from Italy, 184 from Spain, 177 from France and 158 from Portugal, compared with 91 from Germany, 50 from Belgium and 38 from England.[2] That latter pattern was repeated across the other country of parent or grandparent variables. Every other nation represented, and from which regional characteristics were constructed, contained a few dozen individuals at most. Remember, too, that that the Swiss and southern European subjects were drawn from a population of 193.185 million people: they represented, in other words, just over a thousandth of one percent of the modern population. Even the largest sample, which happened to be taken from the smallest population (that of Switzerland), represents only a hundredth of 1% of the latter. The whole POPRES reference population totals only 5,886 subjects reduced, after quality-control procedures, to 3,082. These are infinitesimally small samples.

The POPRES data was compiled from ten collections with the overall aim of providing useful material ‘for population, disease, and pharmacological genetics research’.[3] Its UK data came overwhelmingly from a sample of 431 South Asian and 938 Northern European subjects, aged between thirty-five and seventy-five, collected from fifty-eight GPs in west London for the purposes of research into cardiovascular illness. The largest population (2,809 subjects) was assembled from the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois in Lausanne (hence the dominance of Swiss and southern European samples). Other collections included only healthy subjects. Much of the European genetic data was assembled from the declarations of US, Canadian and Australian subjects of their paternal and maternal ancestry. According to the publication of the POPRES project, ‘[t]he second round of quality control included further PCA [Principal Components Analysis] to identify subjects with ... misreported genetic ancestry’.[4] What this means is unclear but it gives the impression that ‘misreporting’ was established upon the basis of perceived statistical anomaly. Another statement of method is worth quoting in full:

Based on this information, we first attributed a best-guess geographic label to each of the family members based on the following rules: 1) missing data was ignored; 2) if ethnicity conflicted with birthplace or first language data, only ethnicity was considered; 3) if birthplace and first language disagreed, a higher level container label was chosen (e.g. an individual who was born in France but reported his first language to be Norwegian was labeled European); and 4) white individuals born in the US or Canada were attributed according to the first language information alone, if other than English.[5]

Such methods and assumptions may be fair enough, especially for the purposes for which the database was assembled, but they might all be subject to discussion if employed to study historical population movement and ethnicity: not a purpose for which the data were collected. Furthermore, there are serious differences in the reliability of these data between their use at the level of population and their employment at the level of individuals.[6]

The other reference populations were smaller than the POPRES sample.[7] The ‘1000 Genome Project’, from which the genetic ancestry of the Szólád-Collegno individuals was estimated, used populations of only 100-200 subjects.[8] Those that were most significant in the discussion of the results were ‘Central Europeans in Utah’ (CEU: 184 samples); ‘Toscani’ project (TSI, from a small town near Florence: 117 samples); Great Britain (GBR: 107 samples); and ‘Iberians in Spain’ (IBS: 162 samples). Statistically we are looking at fragments of droplets in oceans.

The small modern DNA sample was compared with a still smaller (435 subjects)[9] sample of aDNA collected from archaeologically-recovered skeletons of Bronze Age date ‘or more recent’[10] and the conclusion drawn that, over the past three and a half millennia in Europe, there has been only the barest drift of population, generally to the south.[11] It is significant, however, that the distribution of the Bronze Age sample was almost the diametrical opposite of that of the modern reference population: ninety-three subjects from north of the Alps (mostly from Germany), compared with thirty-three from south of the mountains (including only four from Italy).[12] Some areas heavily represented in the modern sample (Switzerland; France, the UK) featured barely or not at all in the Bronze Age reference set. We have no idea what the population of Bronze Age northern Europe was but one imagines that eighty-eight would be a small fraction of one percent of it. This should raise all sorts of red flags. On this statistical basis, the claims made by Amorim and his fellow authors are, to be generous, bold indeed.

The kindreds were illustrated through a comparison of their genetic ancestry, expressed in terms of the admixture of seven types, of which the most important were labelled ‘CEU+GBR’, ‘TSI’ and ‘IBS’ (see above). It might seem fair to refer to ‘CEU+GBR’ as ‘northern’ and ‘TSI’ and ‘IBS’ as ‘southern’. It should be noted though that the analyses of the aDNA were incapable of clearly separating ‘GBR’ and ‘CEU’. The ‘CEU’ population, as will have been noted, was of modern Americans of European descent. How accurate and precise are its results likely to be in a European context? Even without the problems of sample and method, combining these ancestries covers a very broad region of Europe, inside and outside the Roman frontiers, one unlikely to sustain the very precise but sweeping claims made in the article.

This experiment takes data suggesting immobility, constructed at the level of populations, and compares it against data drawn from individuals and putatively showing migration. If, against the backdrop of a 3,500-year-long history of supposedly general population immobility, aDNA taken from sixty-three burials at two different cemeteries revealed, at both sites, evidence of the arrival of genetically distinct populations, this must have been the equivalent of randomly locating the proverbial needle in a haystack, worthy of a media ‘splash’ in itself. The other implication ought to be that – given the supposed genetic difference of the incomers at Collegno from modern north Italians – whatever its scale, this population movement turned out to be a genetic dead-end, leaving no significant trace in the region’s modern population. If so, the value of this research for the study of the Völkerwanderung should be quite the opposite of that which has been supposed.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that one set of results, which lay outside the expected range, was rejected on hypothetical grounds: ‘this sample showed high levels of contamination (which we hypothesize is the result of plastic wares produced in China that were utilized in DNA extraction) and thus the results are unreliable.’[13] If that were the case, surely that whole body of data should be thrown out of the experiment, not just selected results that did not ‘fit’.

Results

We must assume that the laboratory analyses and subsequent mathematical modelling were flawless but there are strong reasons to discount the experiment’s results on the grounds of its set-up and the problems with its samples. Let us nonetheless treat the results on their own terms. My first point concerns the geographical plotting of different genotypes. The SPA (Spatial Ancestry Analysis) plots geographical coordinates for each allele within a Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) according to the location of the individual from whom the DNA sample was taken.[14] This data can then be used to predict the location of individuals according to the frequency of particular alleles within the SNPs of their genome. After running a series of SPA analyses, the geographical location of the individuals whose DNA was collected could be represented on a graph, using x and y coordinates, in such a way that the means of samples from different regions stood in a spatial relationship to each other that more or less replicated the geographical relationships between those regions. Thus the mean of samples from, say, the Republic of Ireland, United Kingdom and the Netherlands would be located near each other in the top left quadrant of the graph, above and perhaps to the left of the mean for France, and so on. Now, as Yang et al. illustrate, a very similar result can be produced using Principal Components Analysis.[15] If that is so, it must also be the case that geographical coordinates describe (that is to say represent the variation within) the data to a greater degree than variables within the genotypes. Otherwise, the means of samples taken from particular countries or regions would be pulled into clusters according to those genetic variables rather than their geographical relationships. Alternatively the genetic variables have been represented in such a way as to describe the data less well than the geographical coordinates and so allow the latter to determine the plot to a greater extent. Now, for the medical purposes for which SPA or other genetic models were created, this need not be an issue; indeed it might be desirable. For the discussion of historical genetics, however, one is left wondering exactly how significantly the genotypes differ from one another. [I am no longer sure that I have expressed (or got) this quite right, but there’s something very problematic about this mapping and its implications, and the assumptions made about it.] The plotting of individual samples against these geographically-driven plots seems to produce anomalies.

The presentation of the experiment’s results steers the reader towards a particular interpretation. At both Szólád and Collegno analyses suggested the existence of two genetically distinct groups. The argument is that one such group represents ‘northerners’, implicitly immigrants, and the other ‘locals’ (we can bracket the question of whether these assumptions are valid). On the published diagrams the former is coloured blue; the latter red. There is no good reason to have used exactly the same colour-coding at both sites or, alternatively, to have overlaid the results from both sites on the same figures,[16] especially when we might suppose that they represent significantly different populations. Clearly, the reader is intended to associate the two groups at the two sites and to see them as parts of two larger, generally distinct populations – of incoming Longobards and local provincial Romans, respectively. This hampers any critical reading of the data.

The analyses strongly suggested that there were genetically distinct kindreds present at both Szólád and Collegno. They also showed, however, that the two sites’ populations were quite similar overall.[17] Both included people with genetic ancestry of predominantly ‘CEU+GBR’ (‘northern’) type and others with ancestry that was overwhelmingly of ‘TSI’ (‘southern’) type,[18] although most individuals showed combinations of the two. ‘IBS’ ancestry at both was only found in subjects who showed ‘TSI’ ancestry (although in most cases ‘CEU+GBR’ was also present). Both sites contained some people with entirely ‘northern’ and others with entirely ‘southern’ genetic ancestry. On the basis of the genetic data, however, there would be as much reason to suppose that, at least in in Szólád, the people with ‘southern’ ancestry were the incomers, and those with ‘northern’ ancestry the locals, rather than vice versa. That might superficially seem less likely at Collegno but the lack of significant Italian aDNA comparanda means it is possible there too. The – hardly numerous – prehistoric Italian aDNA subjects clustered in a quite different part of the SPA diagram from the Collegno ‘southerners’.[19] That the kindred with ‘northern’ ancestry were newer to the region of Collegno than the other kindreds was only revealed by the isotopic analyses which were, overall, more interesting than the genetic studies. At Szólád those analyses suggested that kindreds of both ancestry types had moved there quite recently.

Two of the analysts’ presuppositions come into play here, neither of which emerges from the data themselves. The first is that the pattern illustrates a specific episode of demographic movement; the similarity results from one population moving to the area of the other. The second is that, more specifically, this episode was the Longobard migration from Pannonia to Italy. Without these, one could argue that the profiles of the two sites revealed that, genetically, populations in sixth-century northern Italy and in Pannonia were fairly similar and attested to continuous movement back and forth between the two regions as one might expect on historical grounds. This is why a control, or other comparanda, was (or were) essential. How likely is it that a sample of any cemetery in the Po Valley, dating to any period between the ‘Celtic’ settlement of Cisalpine Gaul and now, would like Collegno – contain at least some people with genetic make-up suggestive of comparatively recent origins north of the Alps? I would propose that the answer is ‘very likely’.

While difficult and dangerous, population movement across the Alps has been constant since Ötzi the Iceman.[20] The Celtic migration into northern Italy has been mentioned; later, the different regions were part of the same imperial state for the best part of five centuries; Carolingian Italy was politically connected with the Rhine valley, Germany, and Provence and many armies (and doubtless countless individuals) moved back and forth over the mountains. Those contacts continued in the period of the ‘Holy Roman Empire’, bringing French and German troops into the peninsula, as happened again in the sixteenth-century Italian Wars. The ensuing Hapsburg dominance of northern Italy strengthened the already significant ties between that region, southern Germany, and Hungary up to the late nineteenth century. The idea that genetic similarities between Italian and transalpine populations at any point in history can (let alone must) be explained by then recent, discrete large-scale events lacks empirical basis. In other words, while the similarities between the populations of Szólád and Collegno surely attest to individual movement across the Alps, there is no good reason to suppose that they must testify to any particular, large-scale ‘migration event’, or to change rather than stasis in patterns of population movement. None of that (or indeed any of the arguments proposed here) means there was no Longobard migration or that that movement did not involve a large number of people: both facts are incontestable. What they do mean is that the evidence from these sites is not necessarily evidence of that migration, and that traces of that migration need not be expected to be especially clear in the genomes of late antique northern Italians. In many regards the experiment was fundamentally ill-conceived.

Overall, the analyses suggested a generally mixed population of Szólád. The results of Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCA) of Hungarian aDNA samples, when overlaid (using ‘Procrustes’[21]) with the Szólád-Collegno and modern reference samples revealed a distribution that overlapped with the ‘northern’ and ‘southern’ Szólád kindreds.[22] If the authors’ assumptions about long-term population stability between the Bronze Age and the present day, and about their methodology, were correct[23] this evidence would surely not show very conclusively that either group had moved into the region from a significantly distinct area. Analysis of the strontium content of the teeth at Szólád did not suggest that the ‘northern’ group were necessarily more likely to be outsiders than the ‘southern’ group. They were, however, evidently more heterogeneous in origin than the latter. According to the ‘narrative’ the study was supposed to be ‘testing’, barbarian immigrants were heterogeneous but on what basis would one assume that the population of late Roman Pannonia was not? From historical sources we know that it was a frontier province in which garrisons of diverse origins were stationed; in the late fourth century, Goths passed through the region more than once; the fifth century saw several groups, not least the Huns and Ostrogoths, resident there. The latter, of course, later moved to Italy and established a kingdom there.

The results of the analyses, as presented in the diagrams in Nature, seem less than convincing when examined closely. Subjects with different genetic ancestry are plotted against modern and Bronze Age subjects, as mentioned earlier. However, their grouping raises critical issues as the Principal Components Analysis, for whatever reason, pulled the data in such a way as to reveal, in some cases, a greater range within the groups defined by their ancestry than between them. For example, the Szólád ‘northerner’ and the two Szólád ‘southerners plotted nearest the origin lie closer to each other than they do to the members of their groups plotted farthest from the origin. It is also clear that some Principal Components Analyses have described the data far less clearly than others. Something in the data gives us grounds to wonder about the combination of different analyses of different data sets. Is the PCA calling the ‘Admixture’ analyses into question? This especially muddles the results at Szólád. That issue is further obfuscated by the overlaying of the results from both sites on the same plot and the use of the same colours in their representation, discussed earlier.

The ‘northern’ group at Collegno is in fact clustered more compactly, in a different region of the plot from the Szólád ‘northerners’. Indeed we see that the different genetic kindreds at Collegno are far more significantly separated on that plot, something that might support the conclusions the authors wished to draw. However, we also perceive a third group clearly distinguished from both: those with over 50% ‘TSI’ and ‘IBS’ (Tuscan and Iberian) ancestry who, one would have thought, ought to be plotted much further towards the ‘south’ or ‘south-east’ (or lower left-hand) quadrant on the PCA plot rather than in the region where modern Central European subjects cluster. This must question some of the experiment’s assumptions.[24] Ultimately, though, while there are nine ‘northerners’ (with over 70% ‘GBR+CEU’ ancestry) plotted, there are only four with over 70% Tuscan ancestry and four with Tuscan/Iberian. We may wonder why the authors chose to emphasise only the group with Tuscan ancestry as locals when the ‘TSI + IBS’ group could just as easily be called ‘southerners’, unless it was because this was inconvenient for the narrative that they had decided their results should present.

Finally, given the stress laid upon ancestry in the article’s conclusions, the cautionary note sounded recently by Mathieson and Scally is important:

Another source of confusion is that three distinct concepts – genealogical ancestry, genetic ancestry, and genetic similarity – are frequently conflated. ... but note that only the first two are explicitly forms of ancestry, and that genetic data are surprisingly uninformative about either of them.[25]



[3] Nelson MR, et al., ‘The Population Reference Sample, POPRES: a resource for population, disease, and pharmacological genetics research.’ Am J Hum Genet. 2008 Sep;83(3):347-58. doi: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2008.08.005. Epub 2008 Aug 28. PMID: 18760391; PMCID: PMC2556436.

[4] Nelson et al., ‘The Population Reference Sample’.

[6] Mathieson I, Scally A (2020) ‘What is ancestry?’ PLoS Genet 16(3): e1008624. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1008624

[7] The next largest reference population was that created by G. Hellenthal, G.B.J. Busby, et al., ‘A genetic atlas of human admixture history.’ Science. 2014 Feb 14;343(6172):747-751. doi: 10.1126/science.1243518. PMID: 24531965; PMCID: PMC4209567. This contained 1,490 subjects from ninety-five genotyped population groups worldwide (thus an average of fifteen subjects each).

[8] A. Auton et al., ‘A global reference for human genetic variation.’ Nature 526, 68–74 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15393. See https://www.internationalgenome.org/1000-genomes-project-publications/

[9] Mathieson et al.’ ‘Genome-wide patterns of selection in 230 ancient Eurasians.’ Nature 528, 499–503 (2015); Mathieson et al., ‘The genomic history of southeastern Europe.’ Nature 555, 197–203 (2018).

 

[10] ‘For the latter two studies we only utilize individuals dating from the Bronze Age (within which we included the Beaker Culture) or more recent’. K.R. Veeramah, ‘Supplementary Note 6. Modern and ancient reference dataset construction’. Amorim et al. ‘Understanding’, OSM, pp.28-30, at p.29. The implications of the phrase ‘or more recent’ are unclear.

[11] C.E.G. Amorim & K.R. Veeramah ‘Supplementary Note 7. Principal Component Analysis’ analysis’, Amorim et al., ‘Understanding’, OSM, pp.31-35, at pp.32-33.

[12] Mathieson et al., ‘Genome-wide patterns’, Supplementary Data 1; Mathieson et al., ‘The genomic history’, Supplementary Data. Most data were from eastern and south-eastern Europe and western Asia. There were two more Italian aDNA samples from Neolithic subjects.

[13] C.E.G. Amorim & K.R. Veeramah, ‘Supplementary note 7.’, p.31.

[14] Yang, et al., ‘A model-based approach’.

[15] Yang, et al., ‘A model-based approach’, fig.2.e.

[16] Amorim et al. ‘Understanding’, fig.2.

[17] Amorim et al. ‘Understanding’, fig.3.

[18] On which, see above, pp.000.

[19] Amorim et al. ‘Understanding’, fig.2b.

[20] Ötzi, ironically, was included in their ‘Bronze Age’ sample. Above, n.30.

[21] A transformation of one plot so that it overlays another with the best fit.

[22] Amorim et al. ‘Understanding’, fig.2b.

[23] An assumption questioned by the fact that modern Hungarian DNA samples clustered in quite a different part of the diagram; Amorim et al. ‘Understanding’, fig.2a.

[24] See above.

[25] Mathieson & Scally, ‘What is ancestry?